BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bottoming Above $30k?

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If $30k breaks down, the price could reach $20k very quickly.

Last Monday’s Bitcoin signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action when the key resistance level of $39,048 was first reached.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $33,475, $31,953, $28,607, or $27,487.
  • Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $37,341, $39,048 or $42,263.
  • Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Monday that despite recent strong falls and a generally bearish picture, there were signs that we might have seen at least a medium-term double bottom just above the big round number at $35k. I thought that if the price continued to recover for another day or two, we probably would not see a break below $30k for some time.

I was correct about $30k holding for a while if the price continued to recover, and that was a good call. However, the appropriate level to watch is more like $30k than $35k and that has become more apparent due to the recent price action.

We have seen Bitcoin halve in value from its all-time high made only a few weeks ago, and this is significant psychologically. A 50% retracement can be attractive to traders and represent good value. For this reason, we are seeing buying every time the price gets close to $30k which is roughly that 50% level. The area around $30k was also a consolidation zone the last time the price was here.

These factors indicate that we have a pivotal zone at about $30k, and this zone has held as support so far. However, the price action looks at least a little heavy, suggesting that there is danger of $30k breaking down. If it does, the price could reach $20k or lower very quickly, as the price rose from $30k to $30k very quickly without encountering any resistance the last time the price was in this range.

For this reason, I will be happy to take a long-term buy if we get a firm bullish bounce at any of the support levels mentioned above which are higher than $30k. On the other hand, if we get two consecutive hourly closes below $30k today, I will take a bearish bias.

BTC/USD

Regarding the USD, there are no data releases of high importance scheduled for today.

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