Are we trying to bust out of this consolidation range? I think that we will know the answer that rather soon.
The US dollar rallied on Friday to reach the 1.3650 level against the Singaporean dollar. This is an area where we have seen a bit of resistance previously, and it does make sense that we did pull back a bit heading into the weekend. After all, traders will not want to hang on to a position over the weekend, as there is the risk of news coming out while they cannot react to it.
The US dollar may have gotten a little bit overextended against multiple currencies, and that may be the case here against the Singapore dollar as well. The 1.3650 level has been resistant more than once, as we have been hanging about in this larger consolidation area between this level, and the 1.34 level underneath. Ultimately, one thing worth paying attention to is that we did not pull back as far this past time, and it does suggest that perhaps we are trying to build up the necessary momentum to go higher. If we do break out of this range, it suggests that we get a measured move to the 1.39 handle. That being said, this is a pair that does tend to move rather slowly most of the time, so it could take quite a while to get there.
You should be paying attention to the overall attitude of the markets, because although the Singaporean dollar is considered to be the “Swiss franc of Asia”, the reality is that when there is serious trouble out there, it is the US dollar people run towards. The world is full of all kinds of risks right now, and it looks as if there are plenty of reasons to think that the US dollar might strengthen.
n the short term, it is very likely that we could see a little bit of a pullback. A pullback should offer plenty of value, as long as we can stay above the 50-day EMA, and by extension the 1.3550 level. This market does tend to be very noisy and choppy, but it does tend to trend for long periods of time as well. Notice that the most recent pullbacks have been higher than the ones before it. Are we trying to bust out of this consolidation range? I think that we will know the answer that rather soon.